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2 years 2 months ago #94228 by Wonduash
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The Intelligent Betto‪r‬ Drake Everist.
Listen on Apple Podcasts.
Approaching Sports betting from an investors perspective. Finding value in lines across the various sports leagues: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, EPL, WNBA, NCAA, and more. No longer worry about getting Mr. Wiseguy’s “lock of the week” and instead join the movement of sophisticated gamblers only taking action when lines are in our favor.
Listen on Apple Podcasts.
APR 1, 2019 The Intelligent Bettor Episode 8 - April 1st.
The Intelligent Bettor Episode 8 - April 1st.
The Intelligent Bettor Episode 8.
Recap of Weekend.
MARCH MADNESS: (27-27-4) DOWN -2.35u.
MLB SEASON: (6-4) UP 5.84 UNITS.
вљѕпёЏ MLB PROP BETS (2-2) DOWN -0.15 вљѕпёЏ.
вњ… Auburn v. Kentucky - U67 in First Half вќЊ Kentucky (-4.5) v. Auburn вњ… Michigan State v. Duke - UNDER 150.
MARCH MADNESS: (29-28-4) DOWN -1.49u bio.
I also give out 2 official bets, one is an MLB Prop and the other is a Early Pick for the Final 4.
Make sure to follow on Twitter where you can find all my added picks throughout the day as well as through the Google Sheet in my bio.
5 min.
MAR 29, 2019 The Intelligent Bettor Episode 7 - March 29th.
The Intelligent Bettor Episode 7 - March 29th.
The Intelligent Bettor Episode 7.
Recap of MLB, MLB Prop Bets, and March Madness from Yesterday.
Free Picks for second slate of Sweet 16 games.
I also give some information about how and when we will be posting MLB plays this season.
I also talk about Prop Bets and where you can find them.
Make sure to go follow us on all social media channels.
4 min.
MAR 27, 2019 The Intelligent Bettor Episode 5 - March 27th.
The Intelligent Bettor Episode 5 - March 27th.
Today’s episode includes:
A breakdown of the 4 Sweet 16 games going to be played on Thursday.
2 Official Picks for the Sweet 16 - 1 in the Duke v Virginia Tech game - 1 in the Kentucky v Houston game.
I also give some information about when we will be posting the MLB plays for tomorrow’s opening day.
Make sure to go follow us on all social media channels.
6 min.
MAR 25, 2019 The Intelligent Bettor Episode 4 - March 25th.
The Intelligent Bettor Episode 4 - March 25th.
Recap of the first four days of the NCAA Tournament and how our picks did.
Also an additional free play on a Sweet 16 game happening later this week.
March Madness Record: 23-21-3 and Down -0.15 Units Total.
We will be posting an episode of the Intelligent Bettor every Monday-Friday and will be providing picks throughout the NCAA Tournament.
We will also be giving out MLB picks starting Thursday the 28th in time for Opening Day.
Make sure to follow us on social media.
Make sure to also click the link in our social media to track our betting history.
This is all just advice so if you think that you can win on your own that is up to you.
4 min.
MAR 14, 2019 The Intelligent Bettor Trailer.
The Intelligent Bettor Trailer.
Trailer Episode for The Intelligent Bettor, which is a daily podcast that gives out free picks in a brief manner that is easy to consume. This trailer gives a glimpse into how every episode will be structured and what listeners can expect when they tune-in.


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Why 52.4% is the most important percentage in sports gambling.
Albert Einstein putatively claimed that compound interest was the most powerful force in the universe, declaring that: “He who understands it, earns it…He who doesn’t…pays for it.”
The simple mathematical logic supporting compound interest’s power to exponentially grow capital over time is irrefutable. Anyone in finance, or with a cursory understanding of bean-counting, knows that time is money. In a similar vain, the fact that sports gamblers must win or cover bets over at least 52.4% of the time is an inevitable hurdle all sports gamblers must clear to be profitable.
What’s the deal with 52.4%?
The economics of sports gambling is constructed so that the house or sportsbooks typically require players to wager at least 1.10x to win x. Put another way, most bookmakers give 10 to 11 odds — forcing the gambler to risk $11 to win $10 contingent on the outcome of a binary event (e.g., win or lose, cover the spread or not). If your team wins or covers, you win $10 (in addition to your $11 depository wager); if not, the bookmaker keeps your $11. And if the outcome is a push (e.g. the margin of victory = the spread), no money is exchanged.
To better illustrate this concept and explain the derivation of 52.4%, let’s turn to an expected value formula [ see Ex. 1.0, below].
Ex. 1.0: How Vegas Works.
Sportsbooks profit by either: being on the winning side of wager and/or; through earning risk-less profits via structured commissions embedded into the gambling odds.
Let the expected value (EV) of a wager be defined as:
EV = W(p) — L(1-p)
W = potential cash winnings ($) p = probability of winning (%) L = potential loss or amount risked to win W ($) 1-p = probability of losing (%)
You risk $11 to win $10 if Team XYZ covers the spread.
$10p — $11(1-p) = 0.
To solve for p , set the expected value or expected profit equal to zero.
p = $11 / ($11+$10)
p = $11 / $21.
p = 0.5238 or apx. 52.4%
As this example demonstrates, p = 0.524 is the value that makes our expected profit equal to zero. Therefore we can conclude that 52.4% is the frequency or rate that we must clear to make a profit, or wager to earn expected values > 0.
If this embedded edge did not exist, bettors would merely need to win 50.1% of the time to be profitable.
How Vegas Works: Bookies’ Indifference.
We can expand on the previous formula by incorporating the profit opportunity derived from bettors’ preference of wagering on a favorite:
We can simplify the previous equation further by rearranging the terms to:
p = probability that a favorite wins a particular game f = fraction of total currency wagered on the favorite out of total currency wagered on the game v = vig or commission levied by sportsbooks, which is paid only on losing bets.
According to the Freakeconomics economist, Steven Levitt, “If either the probability the two teams win is equal (p = 0.5) or the money bet on both teams is equal (f = 0.5), the bookmakers gross profit simplifies to v/2. In either of these instances, the bookmaker is indifferent about the outcome of the game and earns a riskless [ sic ] profit proportional to the size of the commission charged.”
To ensure profit, the bookmaker need not be able to predict the outcome of games more accurately than bettors — the bookmaker merely needs to predict bettor preferences so as to balance wagers on each side.
Given the aforementioned, let’s solve for the expected value (EV) of a fair coin toss from a bettor’s perspective utilizing the following expected value equation (below):
Should you take this wager?
EXAMPLE 1.1.
You risk $11 to win $10 if the fair coin flip comes up heads.
$10p — $11(1-p) = Expected Value (EV)
p = .50 = the probability of winning a bet (heads).
1- p = .50 = the probability of losing a bet (tails).
$10 = The amount awarded to the gambler if heads.
$11 = The amount risked by the gambler to win $10, which goes to the house if the gambler loses (tails).
(10* 0.50) — (11* 0.50) = -0.50 = Expected Value (EV)
To calculate your expected long-term return on investment (ROI), simply divide the expected value by the amount risked:
[(EV) / (Amount Risked)] = ROI.
(-0.50/11) = -4.55%
Now Imagine that instead of making a spread bet, you were betting on a fair coin toss with 50–50 odds (i.e., 50% win, 50% lose).
A: You should never take this wager as your expected value is negative [EV rigged coin whereby heads has a 52.4% chance of being flipped (p = 0.524) and tails has a 47.6% chance being flipped (1-p = 0.476) then your expected value would equal zero (as demonstrated in Ex. 1.0). While you won’t lose money in the long-run playing this game, you certainly won’t make any!
How Vegas Works: Break-Even?
An efficient way to break the bank…
The Vigorish: How Sportsbooks Collect Risk-less Profits.
In traditional bookmaking parlance, the vigorish , often disparagingly referred to colloquially as the vig , juice , or rake is the theoretical risk-less average profit per unit collected by a sportsbook assuming a roughly even split of betting currency on each side (e.g. 50% of wagers on the favorite; 50% on the dog).
Returning to Ex. 1.0, let’s assume that 50% of the betting action supported Team XYZ covering the spread whereby Team XYZ backers risked $11 to win $10 per bet in the event that Team XYZ covers. Furthermore, let’s assume that the sportsbooks collected an equal proportion of wagers supporting Team XYZ’s opponent, Team ABC covering the spread whereby ABC spread bettors also risked $11 to win $10 per bet.
So long as the game’s final margin does not land on ( push ) the spread value, sportsbooks will earn a guaranteed profit of $1 per bet [ see Ex. 1.2 below for further explanation].
EXAMPLE 1.2.
50% of the money bet on Team XYZ to cover -5.5.
Bettors for each side risked $11 to win $10.
The house pays out the Team ABC supporters at $10 per ticket, and holds the $11 per Team XYZ wager, retaining a guaranteed profit of $11-$10 or $1.
The house retained $1/$22 or 0.045 (4.5%) as the vig, returning the $11 risked plus the $10 in winnings to the Team ABC backers.
How to conceptualize probability and hurdle rates.
Expected Value [EV] / Amount Risked $ = Return on investment [ROI %]
The ROI is best conceptualized as your expected return per wager in the long run. Our human minds are not predisposed to naturally think in terms of probability, incidentally we tend to incorrectly interpret a loss for a given event with a 52.9% probability of occurring (47.1% probability of not occurring) as having a 0% of occurring because it did not go our way.
It is helpful to keep a quarter handy to anchor the mind to what 50% feels like as a heuristic to better calibrate our schema in terms of chance. Flip the quarter and call it 10 times, and tally how many times you called it properly. Remember that a 52.9% likelihood is not very different (in terms of probability) from 50%!
Like compounding, intelligent wagering is a long-term game. All of these hypothetical values are long-term returns that ought to be achieved with time and a sufficiently large sample size assuming your fundamental odds are more accurate than the market, and that you only wager when the EV > 0.
Expected Value Table.
Risk $110.00 to Win $100.
p(w) = 52.9% EV = (0.529 * $100)-(0.471 * $110) = 1.05, ROI = 1.05/$110 = 0.95%
May the odds be forever in your favor.
Works Cited.
Levitt, Steven D., “Why Are Gambling Markets Organized So Differently From Financial Markets?” The Economical Journal, 114 (April), 223–246. Royal Economic Society 2004. Blackwell Publishing, 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford, UK, p. 227.


Category: Sports Betting.
Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Arizona Cardinals (5-3)
The Line: Cardinals -2.5, O/U 56.5 Kickoff: November 15th @ 4:05 p.m. EST TV: CBS Game Preview The Bills are set to travel to the west coast to take on the Arizona Cardinals. Buffalo’s coming off of a statement home win against one of the best teams in the NFL […]
Houston Texans (2-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-3)
The Line: Browns -3.5, O/U 49.5 Start Time: November 15th @ 1 p.m. TV: FOX Game Preview This week the Texans look to get their second road win in a row in Cleveland. Houston’s coming off a not so surprising win against the subpar Jacksonville Jaguars. However, Cleveland is looking […]
Las Vegas Raiders (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (5-2)
The Line: Browns -2.5, O/U 55.5 Start Time: Sunday, November 1st @ 1PM EST TV: FOX Game Preview The Cleveland Browns are looking forward to coming back home after 2 straight road games to face the Las Vegas Raiders. However, the Cleveland weather is not in their favor with winds […]
Los Angeles Rams (5-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-3)
The Line: Rams -3.5, O/U: 46 Start Time: Sunday, November 1st @ 1PM EST TV: FOX Game Preview The Miami Dolphins are set to host the Los Angeles Rams at Hard Rock Stadium Sunday afternoon for a thrilling highly anticipated matchup. Well unless you’ve been living under a rock you’ve […]




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2 years 2 months ago #94247 by Wonduash
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п»їSports Betting.
On Super Sunday, one of the most enticing showdowns in Super Bowl history will transpire in between the confines of Raymond James Stadium between the defending champs in the Kansas City Chiefs and the Read more.
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Sports Betting Advice.
Offshore Sportsbooks versus Corner Bookie We take a look at the advantages of placing your wagers at internet sports books versus laying your action with a corner bookie.
High Betting Limits? Pinnacle Sportsbook's withdrawal from the US market left many big bettors looking for a reputable sportsbook to place their action.
Betting Math - ROI Return on your money invested is one concept that many gamblers do not consider when they wager on sports.
Sports Betting Primer To profit in sports wagering you need to follow strict money management rules. Beginners and novice bettors should not vary their wager size.
How to Successfully Bet Parlays Betting on parlays can lead to big payouts, but it doesn’t come without risk. Learn how to you can increase your chances of cashing.
How to Wager.
If you are new to wagering online or sports gambling in general then you could probably benefit from reading our articles below. Learn why not all sportsbooks are the same and why you should choose a bookmaker that suits your style of wagering.
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NHL Lines.
A good NHL player knows the various types of bets available and how each of them works. Gone are the days where you could only place a wager on who would win the match. Most of the sportsbook platforms today offer several options when it comes to betting.
But before we talk about the different bet types available in the National Hockey League, we want you to understand something important. You don’t have to make all of these bets just because there are various types to choose from. You can start with only one kind of bet and then try others if you see an opportunity.
Also, a bet does not have to be complicated to be profitable. Anyone can be successful in NHL betting without trying the other ways to bet. Your success as a bettor relies on how you use your knowledge and make informed wagering decisions based on that.
With that said, let’s take a look at the various bets you can make in NHL lines today.
MONEYLINE BETS.
The most common and popular type of bet in NHL (National Hockey League) sports betting is the moneyline bet. This category of betting is where a person places a bet on who will win a game. You win the bet when the team you chose wins the match.
However, these moneyline bets have different payouts. Sportsbooks will pay bettors less money for making the right pick on an NHL team that is favored to win by oddsmakers. On the other hand, betting on the underdog will net you more money.
Just remember that this is just the rule of thumb. NHL lines can still change depending on how other people decide to bet.
What’s important is that bettors understand that the money they earn is based on the probability of a team winning. It’s not possible to get even money on all of the bets you make. Moneyline bets in the NHL operate the same way as in other major sports like in the NBA, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, UFC, and even in some esports.
PUCK LINE BETS.
Sports betting on puck lines work the same as a moneyline. The main difference here is that a team has to win by more than 1.5 goals or lose by fewer than that.
Teams that are the favorite have to win by more than 1.5 goals in a puck line bet. Meanwhile, the underdog can lose the game by 1.5 goals or fewer and still win the wager made on them. The NHL odds for payout will be adjusted but not as much as a moneyline.
Check out this example below:
Let’s say the Tampa Bay Lightning has a matchup against the New York Rangers. The Lightning squad is considered the favorite sitting at -220 on the moneyline. The following puck line betting odds for this setup are as follows:
Betting on the Lightning on the puck line will net you higher than even money. Since there are no half goals in the NHL, they need to win their match by at least two goals for you to win the bet.
Now that you know what a puck line bet looks like, we can compare its payouts with a moneyline bet to see how they differ.
Let’s say you bet $100 on the Lightning on the moneyline. If you win, you’d get $45.45 in profit. The team only has to win their game for you to win the bet.
On the other hand, betting on the Lightning via the puck line will get you a $133 in profit. However, the Lightning must win their match by at least two goals for your bet to win.
See the difference? You’ll be getting way more money when you bet on favorites with a puck line. The only catch is that your team has to win equal or more than the set amount of goals.
Making a puck line bet is great if you believe a team will win decisively. If you think they are just going to squeak past a win, then you’re better off going the moneyline.
OVER/UNDER BETS.
An over/under in the NHL is a wager on whether or not a team can achieve a certain amount of total goals. In other sports betting categories, this designated number can change, yet the payout odds remain the same.
In the NHL, this over/under line will always be 5.5 goals, with the payout betting odds shifting to accommodate line changes.
Take for example the over/under odds for the Edmonton Oilers and the Montreal Canadiens are as follows:
As you can see, each total is presented as half goal numbers, which is done to prevent ties. If there’s a good chance that more goals are going to be scored in the match, the payout odds will scale to pay better for those betting on the under. If fewer, the odds will change to pay more for the over. The over/under number will always stay at 5.5.
To win in this kind of bet, the bettor must precisely predict the total number of goals in a game for the two teams. It doesn’t matter if one side wins, goalies score all of the goals, or if both teams score. What matters is the total number of goals that are scored.
If you choose the right side, then you win the bet.
PROP BETS.
This is a proposition bet with a wager included. If you bet that a friend won’t be able to finish their drink in 10 seconds, then you’ve made a prop bet. Prop bets, just like parlay bets, are quite fun and can also be a source of profit when done right.
There are plenty of prop betting options sportsbooks offer on NHL games. In fact, there are two categories for it – skilled and unskilled.
In skilled prop bets, these are bets that let you use your knowledge on stats and experience to improve your chances of winning. On the other hand, unskilled prop bets are pretty much just left up to chance. It doesn’t matter how informed you are, the chances of choosing a winning side won’t change.
If you want to be profitable, you might want to stick to skilled prop bets. The unskilled prop bets are more for fun than for gaining money.
Keep in mind that sportsbooks won’t tell you the difference between a skilled and unskilled prop bet. You will have to figure this one out for yourself.
There are different kinds of prop bets. The options you can choose from will depend on the sportsbook site you’re with and what they decide to offer for each match.
One example of a popular unskilled prop bet in the NHL is which team gets to score first. With this kind of bet, the only thing that matters is which team gets to put the puck in the net first.
An example of a skilled prop bet would be betting on the team that gets the most goals in a certain period. Some squads like to take it slow on ice time while others try to go for the power play as soon as possible. Knowing which NHL lineups like doing what can help you make an informed decision when placing this kind of bet.
FUTURES BETS.
This type of bet is where you place a wager as early as the start of the season or playoffs to wager on their outcomes. The payouts for future bets can be very lucrative as they are not easy to get right.
At the beginning of the season, can you already tell which team is going to win the Stanley Cup? If yes, then you stand to gain a lot of cash through NHL hockey futures betting.
What makes future bets awesome is that you aren’t limited to just the start of a season or playoff. Many sportsbooks let you put future bets at any time throughout the season.
The main difference is that the betting lines are going to change to show which team has the highest chance to win the Stanley Cup. A team that has a hot streak will have a lower payout due to being the favorite by oddsmakers to win the Cup.
Below is an example of how an NHL futures betting list would look like:
One crucial thing to remember in futures bets is its impact on your available funds. You see, you can’t access any of your winnings until the end of the season if you do win a futures bet. This should be pretty straightforward since you’ll be betting on an outcome that may or may not happen by the end of the playoffs.
Adding futures betting to your arsenal is a big deal as the payout for it can be hefty if you choose right. Even better is that you can bet on several other teams if you wish. With the increased payouts, you can still come out profitable so long as the team you pick wins the Stanley Cup.
CONCLUSION.
Betting on NHL odds and lines can be super fun and lucrative as long as you know what you’re doing. Whether you want to become a professional bettor or just want to be entertained, the information we’ve provided should make you familiar enough about betting in the NHL.
If this is your first time learning about all these, don’t be overwhelmed. Take time to re-read any sections and absorb as much knowledge as you can. You can even hit up a betting podcast to learn how the pros do it. The more you understand how NHL betting works, the more successful you can be.


New York Online Sports Betting: Gov. Andrew Cuomo Fully On Board, But Wants Lottery Model.
Photo credit: Al Bello/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Governor Andrew Cuomo.
UPDATE, 12:30 p.m. ET: Cuomo said he wants to run sports betting through the state lottery, and not casinos. That’s led to a disastrous one-operator model in places like Washington D.C., which has struggled to generate much revenue.
A lottery model means only one sportsbook would operate, leading to less competition, worse pricing for consumers and little to no innovation.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo says he wants to do sports betting with Lottery control instead of casinos, saying it will make more money for the state. — Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) January 6, 2021.
Gaming lawyer Daniel Wallach said the lottery model isn’t possible under the state’s constitution, though.
He's probably right about the economics, but it would not fly legally under the state constitution. A non-starter. — Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) January 6, 2021.
Operators of course favor a model where they can partner with casinos, as do most consumers.
“We are encouraged by Governor Cuomo’s most recent statements regarding sports betting in New York. We are keenly interested in reviewing the details of the proposal and look forward to legislation that creates a competitive mobile marketplace,” Matt King, CEO, FanDuel Group said.
“We have seen in other states that a model with competition among experienced operators is critical to maximizing state tax receipts and consumer choice. We look forward to working with the Administration and the New York State legislature to bring mobile sports betting to the residents of our home state in a manner where everyone wins.”
We’ll continue updating this story as things play out.
ORIGINAL STORY: Well, it finally happened.
Pressure of neighboring New Jersey turning into the new sports gambling capitol of the nation combined with budgetary issues from COVID-19 have led to New York Governor Andrew Cuomo finally embracing mobile sports betting in the Big Apple.
The details are not yet clear, but Cuomo acknowledged he would finally address the fact that New York had not embraced mobile sports betting. A statement from Cuomo was published in the New York Daily News early Wednesday morning.
“New York has the potential to be the largest sports wagering market in the United States, and by legalizing online sports betting we aim to keep millions of dollars in tax revenue here at home, which will only strengthen our ability to rebuild from the COVID-19 crisis,” Cuomo said.
Just last month, Cuomo in a news conference acknowledged sports betting as a way to close the budget gap for the very first time.
New York State senator Joe Addabbo has been imploring Cuomo’s aids to take up sports betting handle, as New Jersey is set to break the all-time yearly record when final numbers are reported next week. The previous record of $5.3 billion was set by Nevada in 2019.
In February 2020, FanDuel and DraftKings, who were lobbying the state to allow online betting, proposed scenarios of taxation that, according to research firm Eilers & Krejcik, would generate more than $200 million for the state. Without mobile, the firm said that the state was realizing just 5% of its full potential. DraftKings’ stock was up more than 6% in pre-market trading on the news Wednesday.
“I’m thankful for the Governor moving mobile sports betting in New York closer to crossing the goal line,” Addabbo told The Action Network. “I now await the details.”
Four upstate casinos had already been given approval to take sports bets when the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act was rolled back by the Supreme Court in May 2018, giving the states the right to decide whether they wanted to legalize sports gambling.
Despite pleas, Cuomo decided not to add any new revenue generators to the 2020 budget, meaning that mobile sports gambling was not an option. That left even more money on the table due to COVID-19 physical restrictions at retail locations.
In November, New Jersey generated more than $930 million in sports bets, with more than 90% of it bet online.
New York does not report monthly sports betting handle, but because there is no mobile betting, the state has been passed in revenue by New Jersey, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Colorado and others.
There are no constitutional issues with mobile sports betting in New York, so there would not be a big overhaul to any bills needed, Addabbo said. This would be solved by putting servers for mobile betting at the retail locations that already are approved mobile betting operators.
So while there’s no firm timeline for online betting to launch, there isn’t a ton standing in the way with Cuomo on board.
“Those are some of the details that I hope to work with the Governor’s office in the coming days. I’m hopeful his administration is just as enthusiastic and energetic about implementing mobile sports betting in our state as I am,” Addabbo said.
The four casinos already approved in update NY would be the first in line, and the state could immediately grant three more licenses that can be expedited.
There are a few natural fits for immediate operators.
BetMGM

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2 years 2 months ago #94449 by Wonduash
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Pro Gamblers Accuse NV Bookmaker Of ‘Cheating’ On In-Game Bets.
Sportsbook operator William Hill says claims are 'outrageous'
Is a leading sportsbook in the U.S., a dominant player in the Nevada market, creating an unfair advantage against some customers? Some gamblers say the book is “cheating,” while others say the problem might not reach that threshold. It’s a complex situation that impacts the sports betting industry broadly.
William Hill US has been accused by at least two prominent sports bettors of intentionally delaying the acceptance of in-game wagers in the Silver State, depending on if the wager is good or bad for the book. In other words, they’re saying it’s allegedly not a technology shortcoming, but a deliberate attempt by the book to b

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2 years 2 months ago #94615 by Wonduash
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The Intelligent Betto‪r‬ Drake Everist.
Listen on Apple Podcasts.
Approaching Sports betting from an investors perspective. Finding value in lines across the various sports leagues: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, EPL, WNBA, NCAA, and more. No longer worry about getting Mr. Wiseguy’s “lock of the week” and instead join the movement of sophisticated gamblers only taking action when lines are in our favor.
Listen on Apple Podcasts.
APR 1, 2019 The Intelligent Bettor Episode 8 - April 1st.
The Intelligent Bettor Episode 8 - April 1st.
The Intelligent Bettor Episode 8.
Recap of Weekend.
MARCH MADNESS: (27-27-4) DOWN -2.35u.
MLB SEASON: (6-4) UP 5.84 UNITS.
вљѕпёЏ MLB PROP BETS (2-2) DOWN -0.15 вљѕпёЏ.
вњ… Auburn v. Kentucky - U67 in First Half вќЊ Kentucky (-4.5) v. Auburn вњ… Michigan State v. Duke - UNDER 150.
MARCH MADNESS: (29-28-4) DOWN -1.49u bio.
I also give out 2 official bets, one is an MLB Prop and the other is a Early Pick for the Final 4.
Make sure to follow on Twitter where you can find all my added picks throughout the day as well as through the Google Sheet in my bio.
5 min.
MAR 29, 2019 The Intelligent Bettor Episode 7 - March 29th.
The Intelligent Bettor Episode 7 - March 29th.
The Intelligent Bettor Episode 7.
Recap of MLB, MLB Prop Bets, and March Madness from Yesterday.
Free Picks for second slate of Sweet 16 games.
I also give some information about how and when we will be posting MLB plays this season.
I also talk about Prop Bets and where you can find them.
Make sure to go follow us on all social media channels.
4 min.
MAR 27, 2019 The Intelligent Bettor Episode 5 - March 27th.
The Intelligent Bettor Episode 5 - March 27th.
Today’s episode includes:
A breakdown of the 4 Sweet 16 games going to be played on Thursday.
2 Official Picks for the Sweet 16 - 1 in the Duke v Virginia Tech game - 1 in the Kentucky v Houston game.
I also give some information about when we will be posting the MLB plays for tomorrow’s opening day.
Make sure to go follow us on all social media channels.
6 min.
MAR 25, 2019 The Intelligent Bettor Episode 4 - March 25th.
The Intelligent Bettor Episode 4 - March 25th.
Recap of the first four days of the NCAA Tournament and how our picks did.
Also an additional free play on a Sweet 16 game happening later this week.
March Madness Record: 23-21-3 and Down -0.15 Units Total.
We will be posting an episode of the Intelligent Bettor every Monday-Friday and will be providing picks throughout the NCAA Tournament.
We will also be giving out MLB picks starting Thursday the 28th in time for Opening Day.
Make sure to follow us on social media.
Make sure to also click the link in our social media to track our betting history.
This is all just advice so if you think that you can win on your own that is up to you.
4 min.
MAR 14, 2019 The Intelligent Bettor Trailer.
The Intelligent Bettor Trailer.
Trailer Episode for The Intelligent Bettor, which is a daily podcast that gives out free picks in a brief manner that is easy to consume. This trailer gives a glimpse into how every episode will be structured and what listeners can expect when they tune-in.


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Why 52.4% is the most important percentage in sports gambling.
Albert Einstein putatively claimed that compound interest was the most powerful force in the universe, declaring that: “He who understands it, earns it…He who doesn’t…pays for it.”
The simple mathematical logic supporting compound interest’s power to exponentially grow capital over time is irrefutable. Anyone in finance, or with a cursory understanding of bean-counting, knows that time is money. In a similar vain, the fact that sports gamblers must win or cover bets over at least 52.4% of the time is an inevitable hurdle all sports gamblers must clear to be profitable.
What’s the deal with 52.4%?
The economics of sports gambling is constructed so that the house or sportsbooks typically require players to wager at least 1.10x to win x. Put another way, most bookmakers give 10 to 11 odds — forcing the gambler to risk $11 to win $10 contingent on the outcome of a binary event (e.g., win or lose, cover the spread or not). If your team wins or covers, you win $10 (in addition to your $11 depository wager); if not, the bookmaker keeps your $11. And if the outcome is a push (e.g. the margin of victory = the spread), no money is exchanged.
To better illustrate this concept and explain the derivation of 52.4%, let’s turn to an expected value formula [ see Ex. 1.0, below].
Ex. 1.0: How Vegas Works.
Sportsbooks profit by either: being on the winning side of wager and/or; through earning risk-less profits via structured commissions embedded into the gambling odds.
Let the expected value (EV) of a wager be defined as:
EV = W(p) — L(1-p)
W = potential cash winnings ($) p = probability of winning (%) L = potential loss or amount risked to win W ($) 1-p = probability of losing (%)
You risk $11 to win $10 if Team XYZ covers the spread.
$10p — $11(1-p) = 0.
To solve for p , set the expected value or expected profit equal to zero.
p = $11 / ($11+$10)
p = $11 / $21.
p = 0.5238 or apx. 52.4%
As this example demonstrates, p = 0.524 is the value that makes our expected profit equal to zero. Therefore we can conclude that 52.4% is the frequency or rate that we must clear to make a profit, or wager to earn expected values > 0.
If this embedded edge did not exist, bettors would merely need to win 50.1% of the time to be profitable.
How Vegas Works: Bookies’ Indifference.
We can expand on the previous formula by incorporating the profit opportunity derived from bettors’ preference of wagering on a favorite:
We can simplify the previous equation further by rearranging the terms to:
p = probability that a favorite wins a particular game f = fraction of total currency wagered on the favorite out of total currency wagered on the game v = vig or commission levied by sportsbooks, which is paid only on losing bets.
According to the Freakeconomics economist, Steven Levitt, “If either the probability the two teams win is equal (p = 0.5) or the money bet on both teams is equal (f = 0.5), the bookmakers gross profit simplifies to v/2. In either of these instances, the bookmaker is indifferent about the outcome of the game and earns a riskless [ sic ] profit proportional to the size of the commission charged.”
To ensure profit, the bookmaker need not be able to predict the outcome of games more accurately than bettors — the bookmaker merely needs to predict bettor preferences so as to balance wagers on each side.
Given the aforementioned, let’s solve for the expected value (EV) of a fair coin toss from a bettor’s perspective utilizing the following expected value equation (below):
Should you take this wager?
EXAMPLE 1.1.
You risk $11 to win $10 if the fair coin flip comes up heads.
$10p — $11(1-p) = Expected Value (EV)
p = .50 = the probability of winning a bet (heads).
1- p = .50 = the probability of losing a bet (tails).
$10 = The amount awarded to the gambler if heads.
$11 = The amount risked by the gambler to win $10, which goes to the house if the gambler loses (tails).
(10* 0.50) — (11* 0.50) = -0.50 = Expected Value (EV)
To calculate your expected long-term return on investment (ROI), simply divide the expected value by the amount risked:
[(EV) / (Amount Risked)] = ROI.
(-0.50/11) = -4.55%
Now Imagine that instead of making a spread bet, you were betting on a fair coin toss with 50–50 odds (i.e., 50% win, 50% lose).
A: You should never take this wager as your expected value is negative [EV rigged coin whereby heads has a 52.4% chance of being flipped (p = 0.524) and tails has a 47.6% chance being flipped (1-p = 0.476) then your expected value would equal zero (as demonstrated in Ex. 1.0). While you won’t lose money in the long-run playing this game, you certainly won’t make any!
How Vegas Works: Break-Even?
An efficient way to break the bank…
The Vigorish: How Sportsbooks Collect Risk-less Profits.
In traditional bookmaking parlance, the vigorish , often disparagingly referred to colloquially as the vig , juice , or rake is the theoretical risk-less average profit per unit collected by a sportsbook assuming a roughly even split of betting currency on each side (e.g. 50% of wagers on the favorite; 50% on the dog).
Returning to Ex. 1.0, let’s assume that 50% of the betting action supported Team XYZ covering the spread whereby Team XYZ backers risked $11 to win $10 per bet in the event that Team XYZ covers. Furthermore, let’s assume that the sportsbooks collected an equal proportion of wagers supporting Team XYZ’s opponent, Team ABC covering the spread whereby ABC spread bettors also risked $11 to win $10 per bet.
So long as the game’s final margin does not land on ( push ) the spread value, sportsbooks will earn a guaranteed profit of $1 per bet [ see Ex. 1.2 below for further explanation].
EXAMPLE 1.2.
50% of the money bet on Team XYZ to cover -5.5.
Bettors for each side risked $11 to win $10.
The house pays out the Team ABC supporters at $10 per ticket, and holds the $11 per Team XYZ wager, retaining a guaranteed profit of $11-$10 or $1.
The house retained $1/$22 or 0.045 (4.5%) as the vig, returning the $11 risked plus the $10 in winnings to the Team ABC backers.
How to conceptualize probability and hurdle rates.
Expected Value [EV] / Amount Risked $ = Return on investment [ROI %]
The ROI is best conceptualized as your expected return per wager in the long run. Our human minds are not predisposed to naturally think in terms of probability, incidentally we tend to incorrectly interpret a loss for a given event with a 52.9% probability of occurring (47.1% probability of not occurring) as having a 0% of occurring because it did not go our way.
It is helpful to keep a quarter handy to anchor the mind to what 50% feels like as a heuristic to better calibrate our schema in terms of chance. Flip the quarter and call it 10 times, and tally how many times you called it properly. Remember that a 52.9% likelihood is not very different (in terms of probability) from 50%!
Like compounding, intelligent wagering is a long-term game. All of these hypothetical values are long-term returns that ought to be achieved with time and a sufficiently large sample size assuming your fundamental odds are more accurate than the market, and that you only wager when the EV > 0.
Expected Value Table.
Risk $110.00 to Win $100.
p(w) = 52.9% EV = (0.529 * $100)-(0.471 * $110) = 1.05, ROI = 1.05/$110 = 0.95%
May the odds be forever in your favor.
Works Cited.
Levitt, Steven D., “Why Are Gambling Markets Organized So Differently From Financial Markets?” The Economical Journal, 114 (April), 223–246. Royal Economic Society 2004. Blackwell Publishing, 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford, UK, p. 227.


Category: Sports Betting.
Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Arizona Cardinals (5-3)
The Line: Cardinals -2.5, O/U 56.5 Kickoff: November 15th @ 4:05 p.m. EST TV: CBS Game Preview The Bills are set to travel to the west coast to take on the Arizona Cardinals. Buffalo’s coming off of a statement home win against one of the best teams in the NFL […]
Houston Texans (2-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-3)
The Line: Browns -3.5, O/U 49.5 Start Time: November 15th @ 1 p.m. TV: FOX Game Preview This week the Texans look to get their second road win in a row in Cleveland. Houston’s coming off a not so surprising win against the subpar Jacksonville Jaguars. However, Cleveland is looking […]
Las Vegas Raiders (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (5-2)
The Line: Browns -2.5, O/U 55.5 Start Time: Sunday, November 1st @ 1PM EST TV: FOX Game Preview The Cleveland Browns are looking forward to coming back home after 2 straight road games to face the Las Vegas Raiders. However, the Cleveland weather is not in their favor with winds […]
Los Angeles Rams (5-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-3)
The Line: Rams -3.5, O/U: 46 Start Time: Sunday, November 1st @ 1PM EST TV: FOX Game Preview The Miami Dolphins are set to host the Los Angeles Rams at Hard Rock Stadium Sunday afternoon for a thrilling highly anticipated matchup. Well unless you’ve been living under a rock you’ve […]




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2 years 2 months ago #94631 by Wonduash
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п»їHow Do Odds Work in Betting?
If you are planning to start betting, be it casino gambling, sports betting, or any other type, it's important to understand the odds. It would be preposterous and absurd to think about placing bets without having a good grip on the main types of betting odds and the ability to read and interpret the various associated formats.
The three main types of betting odds are fractional (British) odds, decimal (European) odds, and American (moneyline) odds. These are simply different ways of presenting the same thing and hold no difference in terms of payouts. This means that a chance (percentage probability) of an event occurring can be converted and presented in any of the aforementioned types of odds.
How Fractional Odds Work.
Fractional odds (aka British odds, UK odds, or traditional odds) are popular among British and Irish bookies. These are typically written with a “slash (/)” or a “hyphen (-),” e.g. 6/1 or 6-1 and announced as “six-to-one.” Fractional odds are used by some of the world’s largest bookmakers, making them the most preferred odds across the globe.
Therefore, the total (potential) return on a stake can be stated as:
For instance, one of the major sports betting websites listed the following fractional odds for futures betting on the team to win the 2017-18 NBA Championship. Below is a selection of the three teams that had the lowest odds of winning.
Golden State Warriors: 10/11 Houston Rockets: 9/4 Cleveland Cavaliers: 7/1.
It can quickly be determined that the Golden State Warriors are the favorites while the odds on Houston and Cleveland winning are longer. That is, one wins only $10 against every $11 wagered on Golden State to be the champions. Meanwhile, one wins $9 against each $4 (i.e. 3.25 times) put at stake for Houston to win, which is a bit less probable. For Cleveland, one wins $7 against each $1 bet.
In the above example, if you bet $100 on Golden State to win, you could make a $90.91 profit [$100 x (10/11)], and could get back your initial stake of $100, resulting in a total payout of $190.91. However, if you wager $100 on Houston to win, you could receive a profit of $225 [$100 x (9/4)], in addition to the $100 initial stake leading to a total payout of $325. The potential profit for a Cleveland win would be even higher, as you could make a profit of $700 [$100 x (7/1)]. With the initial stake of $100 being returned, it would make for a total payout of $800.
How Decimal Odds Work.
Decimal odds (aka European odds, digital odds, or continental odds) are popular in continental Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. These are a bit easier to understand and work with. The favorites and underdogs can be spotted instantaneously by looking at the numbers.
The decimal odds number represents the amount one wins for every $1 wagered. For decimal odds, the number represents the total payout, rather than the profit. In other words, your stake is already included in the decimal number (no need to add back your stake), which makes its total payout calculation easier.
The total (potential) return on a stake can be calculated as:
For instance, one of the renowned betting websites priced the candidates to win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. Here, we list the decimal odds for the candidates and the biggest long shot among the candidates listed by the bookmaker.
Donald Trump: 4.00 Joe Biden: 1.3.
These numbers merely represent the amount one could win against each $1 put at stake. Therefore, if one bets $100 on Donald Trump to be re-elected as president, this person could make a total payout of $400 ($100 x 4.00). This amount includes the initial stake of $100, giving a net profit of $300.
Similarly, a bettor could make a total payout of $130 ($100 x 1.3) if they successfully bet $100 on Joe Biden. Deducting $100 from this return gives the bettor the net profit earned.
Reviewing the prices that the bookmaker has set for each candidate, it can be determined that according to the bookmaker, the probability of Biden (favorite) winning the election is higher than that for Trump. The higher the total payout (i.e. the higher the decimal odd), the less probable (and riskier) it is for the listed candidate to win.
How American (Moneyline) Odds Work.
Let’s understand this with the help of an example:
One of the popular betting websites priced the NCAA "Sweet 16" men's basketball game between Duke and Syracuse on March 23, 2018, with the following moneyline odds.
In this matchup, there is a big difference between the two odds, indicating a much higher probability of Duke winning the game and advancing to the next round of the NCAA Tournament.
Key Takeaways.
The three main types of betting odds are fractional (British) odds, decimal (European) odds, and American (moneyline) odds. These are simply different ways of presenting the same thing, and hold no difference in terms of payouts. Fractional odds are the ratio of the amount (profit) won to the stake; Decimal odds represent the amount one wins for every $1 wagered; and American odds, depending on the negative or positive sign, either indicate the amount one needs to wager to win $100 or the amount one would win for every $100 staked.
The Bottom Line.
If you are planning to enter the betting or the gambling world, it is important to be able to understand and interpret all types of odds well. Once you have mastered the three popular types of odds (fractional, decimal, and American), you can move towards a more detailed read on this topic and find out how the house always wins. Please refer to Understanding the Math Behind Betting Odds & Gambling for the conversion between the different formats of odds, the conversion of odds into implied probabilities, and the differences between the true chances of an outcome as well as the odds on display.


The Math Behind Betting Odds & Gambling.
The math underlying odds and gambling can help determine whether a wager is worth pursuing. The first thing to understand is that there are three distinct types of odds: fractional, decimal, and American (moneyline). The various types are represent different formats to present probabilities, which are also used by bookmakers, and one type can be converted into another. Once the implied probability for an outcome is known, decisions can be made regarding whether or not to place a bet or wager.
Key Takeaways.
The three types of odds are fractional, decimal, and American. One type of odd can be converted into another and can also be expressed as an implied probability percentage. A key to assessing an interesting opportunity is to determine if the probability is higher than the implied probability reflected in the odds. The house always wins because the bookmaker's profit margin is also factored into the odds.
Converting Odds to Implied Probabilities.
Although odds require seemingly complicated calculations, the concept is easier to understand once you fully grasp the three types of odds and how to convert the numbers into implied probabilities.
There are tools available to make conversions between the three types of odds. Many online betting websites offer an option to display the odds in the preferred format. The table below can help convert odds with pen and paper, for those interested in doing the calculations by hand.
Converting odds to their implied probabilities is perhaps the most interesting part. The general rule for the conversion of (any type of) odds into an implied probability can be expressed as a formula:
As shown, the formula divides the stake (amount wagered) by the total payout to get the implied probability of an outcome. For example, a bookmaker has the (fractional) odds of Man City defeating Crystal Palace at 8/13. Plug the numbers into the formula, which is a simple matter of dividing 8 by 13 in this example, and the implied probability equals 61.5%. The higher the number, the greater the probability of the outcome.
Using an example of decimal odds, a candidate has 2.20 odds to win the next election. If so, the implied probability is 45.45%, or.
Lastly, using the American methodology, Australia's odds to win the 2015 ICC Cricket World Cup is -250. Therefore, the implied probability equals 71.43%:
It is not only important to back winners, but one must do so when the odds accurately reflect the chance of winning. It is relatively easy to predict that Man City will win against Crystal Palace, but would you be willing to risk $100 to make a profit of $61.50? The key is to consider a betting opportunity valuable when the probability assessed for an outcome is higher than the implied probability estimated by the bookmaker.
Why Does the House Always Win?
The odds on display never reflect the true probability or chance of an event occurring (or not occurring). There is always a profit margin added by the bookmaker in these odds, which means that the payout to the successful punter is always less than what they should have received if the odds had reflected the true chances.
The bookmaker needs to estimate the true probability or chance of an outcome correctly in order to set the odds on display in such a way that it profits the bookmaker regardless of an event outcome. To support this statement, let’s look at the implied probabilities for each outcome of the 2015 ICC Cricket World Cup example.
Australia: -250 (implied probability = 71.43%)
The amount above 100%, the extra 4.76%, represents the bookmaker’s "over-round", which is the bookmaker’s potential profit if the bookie accepts the bets in the right proportion. If you bet on both the teams, you are actually risking $104.76 to get $100 back. From the bookie’s perspective, they are taking in $104.76 and expect to pay out $100 (including the stake), giving them an expected profit of 4.5% (4.76/104.76), no matter which team wins. The bookie has an edge built into the odds.
According to a study published in the Journal of Gambling Studies , the more hands a player wins, the less money they are likely to collect, especially with respect to novice players. That is because multiple wins are likely to yield small stakes, for which you need to play more, and the more you play, the more likely you will eventually bear the brunt of occasional and substantial losses. п»ї п»ї п»ї п»ї
Behavioral economics comes into play here. A player continues playing the lottery, either in hopes of a big gain that would eventually offset the losses or the winning streak compels the player to keep playing. In both cases, it is not rational or statistical reasoning but the emotional high of a win that motivates them to play further.
$12 Billion.
The amount of revenues generated by Las Vegas casinos in 2018.
Consider a casino. All of the details—including the game rules, music, controlled lighting effects, alcoholic beverages, and the interior decor— are carefully planned and designed to the house's advantage. The house wants you to stay and continue playing. Naturally, the games offered by the casino have a built-in house edge, although the house advantage varies with the game.
Moreover, novices find it particularly difficult to do cognitive accounting and people often misjudge the variance of payouts when they have a streak of wins, ignoring the fact that frequent modest gains are eventually erased by losses, which are often less frequent and larger in size.
The Bottom Line.
A betting opportunity should be considered valuable if the probability assessed for an outcome is higher than the implied probability estimated by the bookmaker. Furthermore, the odds on display never reflect the true probability of an event occurring (or not occurring). The payoff on a win is always less than what one should have received if the odds had reflected the true chances. This is because the bookmaker’s profit margin is included in the odds, which is why the house always wins.


Which Betting Strategy is the Most Profitable?
In gambling, the amount you bet is just as important as what you bet on. In this article, we simulated five popular betting strategies to try and determine which is the best.
Every serious blackjack player knows that proper playing strategy must be followed in order to keep the house’s edge to a minimum. But staking strategy (i.e. how much to bet on each hand) can be just as important and make the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
The Secret of Success.
Mathematician John Kelly Jr. created a staking formula that many professional gamblers follow to this day. Kelly states, “Playing strategy is maybe a third to a quarter … of what you’re going to get out of it. Betting strategy may be two thirds or three quarters”.
Below, we mapped the success of five popular betting systems over a series of 500 bets:
The above graph shows the profits from 500 simulated bets for the five betting systems, with a 55% probability of winning each bet. The initial bet for each system was $100 (except for the bet everything method, which initially bet $1000). Each system started with a $1000 balance, and the simulation ran for each method until the 500th bet or until their balance was zero).
The five betting systems are explained below:
Betting Strategy A: Bet It All, Every Time.
Bet your entire balance on each bet. The advantage is that if you win, you win big. The downside, of course, is when you lose, you’re out of money.
Betting Strategy B: Martingale.
The Martingale system has you double your bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus a profit equal to the original bet. Since a gambler with unlimited bankroll will, almost surely, eventually win, the Martingale betting strategy is seen as a sure thing by some.
Of course, no one has an unlimited bankroll, and the exponential growth of the bets in order to cover losses will eventually bankrupt gamblers who use this system.
Betting Strategy C: Fixed Betting.
This system requires you bet a fixed amount for each bet. In this example, it is $100. With a 55% probability of winning, this method means you won’t lose your entire balance quickly. It also means any chance of winning will also be slow and steady.
Betting Strategy D: Proportional Betting.
With this strategy, you bet a fraction of your balance in proportion to your edge. In this case, we used the Kelly equation for proportional betting. Here your bet would be your edge divided by the odds. In this example, since the edge is 10% and the odds are evens, 10 / 1 is 10.
So 10% of the $1000 balance, i.e. $100, should be bet each time. If that bet wins, the next bet would increase to $110, 10% of the new $1100 wallet. This means winnings increase quicker than in the fixed-wager system, and losses slow down.
Betting Strategy E: Fibonacci.
With this strategy, you increase your bet in a Fibonacci sequence, to your losses with the next bet’s winnings. The Fibonacci sequence are numbers in the following sequence:
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144,…
By definition, the first two numbers in the Fibonacci sequence are either 1 and 1, or 0 and 1, depending on the chosen starting point of the sequence, and each subsequent number is the sum of the previous two.
This method has similar drawbacks to the Martingale system, but it reduces how quickly the bet increases if you’re on a losing streak,as well as reducing the rate at which you win.
Which Is the Most Profitable Betting Method?
Clearly, Strategy D, the proportional betting system , provides the greatest returns, earning $18,275 after 500 bets. This is not too surprising, since proportional betting appears to have a natural advantage over the others systems.
Say you’re down to your last $100, you’d be betting $10, and decreasing each time, keeping you in the game for much longer than a fixed betting system, where your last $100 would be your last bet.
The only system other than proportional betting to avoid losses was fixed betting (Strategy C), earning $6,400 after 500 bets.
Strategy A, bet it all, generates big gains after the first bet, earning as much in one risk than the others do in the first seven. However, this strategy is eliminated on just the second round. The chance of making it through 500 rounds at 55% is practically impossible – although you would have earned $67 billion by bet 27.
The Martingale (Strategy B) and Fibonacci(Strategy E) betting systems also start strongly, but any big sequence of losses quickly increases the required stake.
In our simulation of betting online, we lost 11 times in a row at round 83. These losses completely wiped out both Fibonacci and Martingale’s stakes. In fact, at the 11-in-a-row loss, the Martingale bettor had to bet $403,000 to recoup his losses.
That was impossible, since his maximum balance was only $6,300. For Fibonacci, the maximum bet was $33,500, with his balance reaching its maximum at $4,100 before busting out.
The 11-bet losing streak also affected proportional betting (Strategy D) greatly, reducing its winnings from $7,359 to $2,286 – lower than that of fixed betting (Strategy C). This shows how well fixed betting protects your winnings and thus ranks as one of our best betting tips.
Which Betting Strategy Should I Choose?
It’s important to keep in mind that our simulation is based on the huge assumptions that we know both the edge (10% in our case) and that the edge is in our favor. This is not likely, and without it, the results for all betting strategies would change significantly.
If you liked this simulation, check out some more betting tips:


Betting Odds Calculator.
Bet Calculator.
Wager.
Return.
The money you get back if you win.
To Win.
The profit you make if you win.
Super Bowl Special Offer.
A big offer for the Big Game!
Players can get a Risk Free First Bet up to $600 and, in addition, all users will receive $50 of Parlay Insurance.
New customers only. 21+. NJ, CO, IN, TN, IN, MI, IA, VA and WV only.
Calculate how much money you stand to win per wager with our betting odds calculator. It definitely comes in handy when placing bets on Monday Night Football!
A bet calculator is an absolute necessity in the arsenal of any serious bettor. The sports betting calculator allows users to simplify some of the more complicated math and get quick and precise calculations of odds and potential winnings.
To learn more about how to use a betting calculator and the different odds formats available for sports betting read below.
How To Use A Betting Odds Calculator.
A betting odds calculator takes the odds and stake of a particular bet and figures out the payout automatically. Thus, in order to understand how to use a betting odds calculator, we must first understand the different types of betting odds.
There are three popular methods of displaying odds at sports betting sites: American, Decimal and Fractional. Each type of odds requires different calculating methods when using a sports betting odds calculator.
You can also have a look at our odds converter!
American Odds.
Profit = (Stake * Odds) / 100.
Taking the example above, if we added a stake of $50 we can calculate the potential winnings from the bet using an odds calculator:
Profit = (50 * 275)/100 Profit = 13750/100 Profit = $137.50.
When calculating American odds for minus odds wagers, you are calculating the odds for favorites, which returns less than even money in profits. So if we took the same example and gave the Boston Red Sox odds of -140, it would represent the fact you would have to wager $140 to make a profit of $100. To calculate the profit for an American minus odds you may use the formula:
Profit = (Stake / Odds) * 100.
So if the Red Sox were getting -140 odds and you were going to wager $50 on them the betting calculator calculation would go like this:
Profit = (50 / 140) * 100 Profit = (0.357) * 100 Profit = $35.7.
When using an American odds bet calculator, you will only be required to know your stake and odds, the calculator will do the rest.
Decimal Odds.
Decimal odds are very popular across the globe with most online sportsbooks using decimal odds as their default. With decimal odds, you get the sum of the amount you would get in return for a $1 bet.
At most online sportsbooks like BetRivers or bet365, you can switch to this format if you prefer.
For example, let’s take a basketball game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics. If the Lakers were getting 2.50 odds for the game, it would mean that for every $1 you bet on the team you would get $2.50. To break it down, you would receive your stake back as $1 and another $1.50 in profits.
Calculating the potential earnings for decimal odds is very simple. You simply multiply your stake by the odds and then subtract your stake.
Profit = (Stake * Odds) – Stake.
Let’s take a look at the above example with a stake of $50.
Profit = (50 * 2.50) – 50 Profit = (125) – 50 Profit = $75.
While the calculations for decimal odds may seem very easy when the profits for accumulator bets are being calculated it’s best to use a betting odds calculator to ensure your accuracy. An odds calculator will automatically work out the odds of all the wagers combined and give potential winnings for parlay bets in seconds.
Fractional Odds.
Fractional odds are popular in the European region, especially amongst horse racing bettors in the UK and sometimes for Daytona 500 betting. With fractional odds, you are given the profit in proportion to the stake. So for example, if we had a matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins where the Cowboys were getting 3/2 odds, it would mean that for every $2 you bet, you would get $3 in profit.
The way a betting odds calculator calculates the profits for a fractional odds bet is by dividing your stake by the denominator and then multiply the stake by the numerator:
Profit = (Stake / denominator) * numerator.
Taking the example mentioned above, if we add a stake of $100 to the Cowboys who are getting 3/2 odds, then the bet calculator calculation would go like this:
Profit = (100 / 2) * 3 Profit = (50) * 3 Profit = $150.




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2 years 2 months ago #94678 by Wonduash
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п»їTop Rated Professional Sports Handicapping Services to Follow in Vegas.
I looked at the records of the premium and free sports picks of everyone we have had over the past five years. I also looked at other sports monitors and trackers to find quality tipsters who don't sell on our site.
What I found is that there are quite a few awesome handicapping services out there. Some of them do better in certain leagues, some only cover a handful of teams in a sport.
Below is the list of names who have excelled over the past several years. This combines every pick they released including money lines, side, and totals. You'll find some big names on this list, but also a few that might surprise you. With this large of a sample size, don't discount anyone listed below.
If you are more interested in a specific sport then at the top of the page you will see the dropdown box which enables you to filter by each individual sport.


What is sports betting handicapping?
Sports Handicapping explained.
If you are just starting to bet in bookmakers, then you probably already have many questions that you would like to find answers to. One of these questions may be – “what is a handicapping /handicap ?”.
At first glance, it might seem that the word “handicap” has nothing to do with bets, but this is not so. Handicap – this is just one of the types of bets that was invented in the United States. The main goal of this bet is to equalize the forces of two rivals.
Why does the bookmaker need to equalize the strength of the teams?
In sports, it often happens that one team is much stronger than the other. Everyone understands how their confrontation will end. That is why the coefficient on the favorite will be minimal. And what’s the point of bettor betting on a coefficient of the form 1.05. With such numbers as you can’t bet, you won’t win much. Here, handicap-type bets come to the rescue, which, so to speak, are heating up inter growth around the event.
For example, a bookmaker offers a favorite odds equal to 2 and the corresponding coefficient. This means that in order for the bet to play, it is necessary that the favorite win with a score of more than 2 goals (3: 0, 4: 1, 5: 2). If the score is, for example, 2: 0, then as a rule, in this case the bookmaker returns the funds spent on the bet. But this point needs to be clarified. Usually, this issue is raised in the rules of each bookmaker.
What are the handicaps.
The handicap is also not alone. Today, modern bookmakers offer three types of handicaps: Asian handicaps, European handicaps and triple handicaps. Let’s look at each of them individually.
Triple handicap.
This type implies that bets can be made on any of three outcomes: P1, P2 and draw.
European handicap.
Almost the same as a triple handicap, however, with a draw, money is not returned. Instead, such an outcome has its own coefficient.
Asian handicap.
This type of bet does not provide for a draw. That is, in any form of handicap, a draw is possible, since the handicap is an integer: handicap 0 1 , handicap 0 2 . In this case, the Asian handicap 0 is impossible. Here the handicap is a fractional number: 0.5; 1.5; 2.5. Therefore, given the handicap, either one team will win or the other.
Handicap betting is quite an exciting experience. Also, thanks to her, you can earn on your favorite team that plays with an outsider. For example, you want to bet on Real Madrid, which plays with Granada. And what will be the coefficient for the victory of Real Madrid? Very very small. The last meeting between these teams ended with a score of 9: 1. But you can play on the handicap, and the coefficient on it will be clearly more than 2.
Now, you know what is handicapping or handicap is. It’s time to go bet. Good luck and lots of wins for you.


Best Sports Handicappers and Pro Bettors.
Below is a world-class collection of sports betting experts, ready to help you win your bets more consistently in 2021.
The professional bettors below are proven handicapping leaders, with documented records of profitable results over many years.
See for yourself by following an industry leading handicapper to guide you in the right direction of more winning wagers and long-term profits.
Matt is one of the most consistent handicappers in the world year in and year out. In his 14 years as a pro, Fargo has had highly profitable seasons in 11 of them.
Stephen is an NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. He claims to have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sports writer, handicapper and analyst.
Sal's philosophy on sports betting is all about quality, not quantity. If you're looking for a handicapper that's all about long-term profits, then Sal is your guy.
Jimmy ensures you success in every sport he covers. Boyd's quality selections and consistency make him one of the best cappers in the world.
Jack has long been a private consultant to some of the bigger players in the industry. Subscribe to Jones if you want a service that you can trust to win consistently.
Since becoming a professional bettor in the summer of 2012, Art has finished with numerous #1 and top 10 placements in all major North American sports.
Marc has won over 500 documented top 10 handicapping achievement awards in his over 40 years as a handicapper, more than anyone in the nation.
Kyle has a great amount of experience breaking down games in every single manner possible. Kyle's $1,000 clients are up $136,000 since 2010.
Ben has earned dozens of documented top 3 finishes in football, basketball, baseball and hockey, including numerous #1 titles at respected sports monitors.
Known in the online gambling industry as "The Razor". Ray bets on all games he provides to his subscribers. He has developed his own sports betting systems that are truly cutting-edge.
Rob is one of the leading capping analysts in the world over the last 24 years. He's right at the top of leaderboards in every major sport. Rob thoroughly analyzes every game on the board.
Rocky's ability to pick winners on a consistent basis is second to none. With his money management system, you will maximize your profits week in and week out.
Larry is nearing 40 years as a professional handicapper. He's well-known for his expert game analysis and no-nonsense handicapping style, which ranks him well on a yearly basis.
Dave's expertise have proven to be worth their price with 28 documented top 10 finishes in football, basketball and baseball since 2008. He also ranked #1 overall in 2012.
Mike is a numbers guy, with a keen eye for spotting betting trends and stats that just don't jive with the oddsmakers. Lundin prides himself at finding value in close match-ups.
Will believes that there's always value to be found and takes a conservative long-term approach to investing on his sports bets. He's content that his long-term strategy will produce profits.
Joseph D'Amico is known in Las Vegas and around the country as the 'Big Play Capper'. Since being documented, Joe has over 25 top 5 finishes, including several number 1's.
There isn't anyone who is going to outwork Jeff, and the result has been multiple winning seasons. Jeff's 5* Wiseguy plays have been known to hit as high as 70% for an entire season.
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach ranks among the most profitable sports bettors over the years. He's built a loyal following with his results and honest open approach.
Alex has been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. His plays have been documented for 20 years and has earned multiple top 10 basketball and football finishes.
Sean's selections are based on his extensive knowledge of the game, with a strong emphasis on totals. He prides himself on going against the majority and thinking outside

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